With the federal residential solar credit (§25D) gone for cash and loan buyers as of January 1, 2026, state-level incentives now do most of the math on residential solar payback. The federal lever is no longer the question — your state's net-metering rule, retail electricity rate, and incentive stack are. This is the per-state reference for the seven states where The Solar Brief operates a vetted partner network: California, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Arizona, Texas, Nevada, Florida.
By The Solar Brief Editorial Team · Reviewed by To be assigned (paid solar advisor) · Updated May 2026
A note on what changed and what didn't: the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, signed July 4, 2025, terminated the §25D residential federal credit for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025 (IRS OBBBA FAQ). The §48E commercial credit, which lease and PPA providers capture, remains available through 2027 with construction-begin and placed-in-service safe harbors. State incentive programs — SuSI in NJ, SMART in MA, SGIP for batteries in CA, AZ residential credit, and various utility rebates — are state law, unaffected by OBBBA. They didn't change. They now matter more. The state pages we maintain at solarbrief.com/destinations have the full per-utility detail; this article is the comparison view.
California CA · Tier 1 — battery essential
California's retail rates are the highest in the seven-state set and the obvious driver of solar economics — but NEM 3.0, in effect since April 2023, dropped export credits to roughly 15% of retail. That changed the calculus before OBBBA: panels-only economics in California stopped working in 2023; battery-paired systems became the only configuration that pencilled. With the federal credit now gone too, cash payback on a typical 8.5 kW + 13.5 kWh battery system stretches from approximately 10 years (with §25D) to approximately 14 years cash in 2026.
California is the state where the lease pivot pays off most clearly. TPO providers in the Bay Area and SoCal aggressively pass §48E credit value through as lower per-kWh rates — typical lease offers in May 2026 land at roughly $0.18–0.22/kWh, well below PG&E retail. Effective payback via lease falls to roughly 7–9 years through 2027. For new California installs in 2026, the lease pivot is genuinely worth a hard look unless the homeowner is set on ownership. The Self-Generation Incentive Program (SGIP) battery rebate remains; tiers are declining and current eligibility favors low-income households and high-fire-risk zones.
New Jersey NJ · Tier 1 — strongest state stack
New Jersey is the post-§25D winner. The Successor Solar Incentive program produces predictable per-kWh payments for 15 years (NJ Board of Public Utilities) — a state-level cash flow that partially absorbs the loss of the federal credit better than any other program in the country. Combined with full retail net metering and sales/property tax exemptions, the SuSI stack keeps NJ cash payback in single digits even after OBBBA.
A typical 8 kW system on a $24,000 list price net-costs approximately $24,000 cash (no federal credit) but generates roughly $1,800/yr of bill displacement plus $2,500–4,000/yr of SuSI payments, depending on system size and SuSI tier. Cash payback lands at 9–11 years. Lease and PPA are available in NJ but the math doesn't favor them as strongly as in lower-rate states — the SuSI stack is too rich to give up. For owner-minded buyers in NJ, cash still wins comfortably. Most major TPO providers will compete in NJ, but the comparable-baseline lease offer typically beats cash only at the lower end of the bill range.
Massachusetts MA · Tier 1 — high retail + SMART
Massachusetts has the second-strongest post-OBBBA stack in the country — high retail rates do most of the heavy lifting, the SMART program (MA Department of Energy Resources) layers on per-kWh production payments, and the state income tax credit (up to $1,000) plus sales tax exemption sit on top. Cash payback on a typical 8 kW system lands at 9–12 years, depending on which SMART block the install enrolls under and the homeowner's specific utility rate.
One MA-specific consideration that matters more than in any other state: roof age. New England housing stock skews older than the rest of the country; many MA homes have 30+ year asphalt-shingle roofs that should be replaced before solar. Removing and reinstalling panels mid-life runs $5,000–10,000 and erases years of payback. Several MA installers (Boston Roof & Solar in particular) offer combined roof-and-solar quotes — a useful structure if your roof is approaching end-of-life. Lease and PPA are available but cash usually wins given the SMART stack's strength.
Arizona AZ · Tier 2 — sun-rich, low rate
Arizona has the best solar production conditions of any state in the set — abundant sun, large suburban roofs, AC-heavy summer demand that aligns well with midday production. But the retail rate is comparatively low ($0.13–0.17), and APS and SRP both replaced traditional net metering with export-credit structures well below retail rate. With the federal credit gone, cash payback on a typical 9–11 kW system stretches to 11–14 years. The Arizona Residential Solar Tax Credit ($1,000 maximum) is now the only state-level tax-credit lever, plus sales tax exemption.
Time-of-use shifting via battery is increasingly common in AZ — APS and SRP rate plans favor self-consumption, which battery enables. Phoenix-metro TPO competition is healthy; lease and PPA offers in May 2026 typically land in the $0.10–0.13/kWh range, comparable to or slightly below APS retail. Lease worth a hard look here through 2027, particularly for homeowners with bills in the $200–300/mo range who don't want a 14-year cash payback. The lease pivot is meaningful in AZ for the same reason it's meaningful in CA — the federal credit loss matters more in lower-rate states.
Texas TX · Tier 2 — REP buyback matters most
Texas is the state where solar economics are most installer-and-utility-specific. There's no statewide net metering rule; the buyback plan you choose with your Retail Electricity Provider matters as much as the panels on your roof. Some REPs (Green Mountain, Rhythm) offer 1:1 buyback plans; others credit at wholesale rates. With the federal credit gone, cash payback on a typical 8–12 kW system lands at 12–16 years, depending heavily on the REP buyback plan. Texas has no state income tax credit, so the federal-credit loss isn't absorbed by a state-level tax lever — only by local utility rebates (Austin Energy, CPS Energy, Oncor) where they apply.
Battery + transfer switch installation is unusually common in Texas after the February 2021 winter event — homeowners who lost grid power for days are willing to pay for backup. That demand has kept TX battery installer expertise strong. Lease and PPA may pencil meaningfully better than cash through 2027 in Texas, particularly for households outside the Austin-Energy-and-1:1-REP geographies. The §48E passthrough partially compensates for Texas's thin incentive stack — and TX TPO competition is healthy in the Austin / DFW / Houston suburbs.
Nevada NV · Tier 3 — thin stack, time-of-use plays
Nevada has good solar production conditions (high sun, large suburban roofs in Las Vegas / Henderson / Summerlin and Reno / Sparks) but the thinnest incentive stack of the seven states. NV Energy's tiered net metering credits exports at roughly 75% of retail in the current tier — meaningfully better than CA NEM 3.0 but well below full retail. Critically, Nevada has no state income tax (so no state income tax credit) and no broad-based state rebate program. The lever stack post-OBBBA is now retail rate plus tiered net metering plus the federal lease/PPA passthrough — that's it.
Cash payback on a typical 8–11 kW system lands at 12–15 years in 2026. NV Energy's time-of-use rate plans favor self-consumption, which makes battery increasingly valuable for new installs. Lease and PPA worth strong consideration through 2027 — Nevada is one of the markets where the federal-credit-loss bites hardest in cash purchases. Las Vegas-area TPO competition is healthy; Henderson and Summerlin in particular see active TPO marketing. The lease pivot is genuinely worth a comparison quote at any bill level above ~$200/mo.
Florida FL · Tier 2 — sun + retail NM preserved
Florida's value rests on three durable pillars: abundant sun, AC-heavy bills (pool pumps amplify this), and full retail net metering preserved despite ongoing legislative pressure. Florida has no state income tax, so no state-level credit absorbed the federal-credit loss — but full retail net metering is the most valuable durable state-level structure in the country. With the federal credit gone, cash payback on a typical 8–12 kW system lands at 12–15 years. Sales and property tax exemptions apply.
The two FL-specific must-checks before you sign anything: hurricane wind ratings on panels and racking (verify rated for at least 160 mph wind uplift, especially in Miami-Dade and Broward), and homeowner insurance premium impact post-install (some carriers bump premiums; some don't). Lease and PPA are available throughout Florida but the math doesn't favor them as strongly as in NV or AZ — the full retail net metering means cash purchasers actually capture the value of their production. Lease comparable to cash; pick on ownership philosophy and upfront cost preference. South Florida TPO competition is strongest; central and panhandle markets have thinner installer ecosystems.
Compare all seven states
For premium-suburb households with bills in the $200–400/month range, here is the full comparison of 2026 economics across the seven states:
| State | Retail rate | Net metering | Key state lever | 2026 cash payback | Lease/PPA path |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJ | $0.18–0.22 | Full retail | SuSI (15-yr per-kWh) | 9–11 yrs | Available; cash usually wins |
| MA | $0.30–0.38 | Full retail | SMART per-kWh + $1K state credit | 9–12 yrs | Available; cash usually wins |
| CA | $0.32–0.48 | NEM 3.0 (export ~$0.07) | SGIP battery rebate | 12–16 yrs (battery req'd) | Strongly preferred through 2027 |
| AZ | $0.13–0.17 | Limited (export < retail) | $1K AZ state credit | 11–14 yrs | Worth a hard look |
| FL | $0.13–0.17 | Full retail (preserved) | Sales + property tax exemption | 12–15 yrs | Comparable to cash |
| NV | $0.13–0.17 | Tiered (~75%) | Property tax exemption only | 12–15 yrs | Worth strong consideration |
| TX | $0.11–0.16 | None (REP-dependent) | Local utility rebates only | 12–16 yrs | Often pencils better through 2027 |
State retail rates from EIA Electric Power Monthly, 2026 edition. Net-metering and incentive program details per each state's public utility commission documentation, accessed via DSIRE in May 2026. Payback ranges assume an 8 kW panels-only system (panels + 13.5 kWh battery in California) on a south- or west-facing unshaded roof for a household at the midpoint of the $200–400/mo bill range. Real outcomes vary by specific system size, equipment tier, installer, and individual tax situation.
Why we don't quote lifetime savings
Most installer marketing leads with "lifetime savings" — total dollars saved over 25 years. Those numbers depend on retail electricity rate inflation (typically assumed at 3–5% annually, often optimistically), system production degradation (about 0.5% per year), and what the homeowner actually does with the bill credits. Small changes in any of those assumptions move the lifetime number by tens of thousands. We deliberately don't quote specific lifetime savings figures in our analysis. Too many compounding assumptions stack up over 25 years for the resulting number to be useful in any given homeowner's decision. The number we trust is cash payback period in years — how many years until the system has paid for itself in displaced electricity at today's rates.
Five minutes with Marcus, our AI solar advisor, will give you a specific read on your state, your bill, and your roof in 2026 — including whether you're a cash candidate, a lease candidate, or someone we'd honestly recommend wait. Free, no follow-up calls you didn't ask for.
Talk to MarcusMethodology + sources
Per-state figures are typical ranges for representative homeowner profiles. Actual outcomes for any individual install depend on the specific system size, equipment tier, state and utility, installer, and individual tax situation. We deliberately do not quote specific lifetime savings figures — too many compounding assumptions stack up over 25 years for the resulting number to be useful.
- One Big Beautiful Bill Act termination of §25D residential credit and §48E commercial credit timing: IRS FAQs for OBBBA modifications; SEIA Clean Energy Provisions in the OBBBA; Arnold & Porter — From IRA to OBBBA.
- Per-state net metering, state-level incentives, and utility-specific programs: DSIRE state programs database, accessed May 2026.
- State residential retail electricity rates: EIA Electric Power Monthly, 2026 edition.
- California NEM 3.0 export rates: California Public Utilities Commission Decision 22-12-056. SGIP program details: SGIP program administrator.
- New Jersey Successor Solar Incentive: NJ Board of Public Utilities.
- Massachusetts SMART program: MA Department of Energy Resources.
- Arizona Residential Solar Tax Credit: Arizona Department of Revenue.
- Texas REP buyback plan landscape: PUC Texas Power To Choose for REP plans; per-utility rebate programs (Austin Energy, CPS Energy, Oncor) per their respective program pages.
- Annual production estimates: NREL PVWatts Q4 2025 production figures.
- Residential solar pricing benchmarks: EnergySage Solar Marketplace, Q1 2026 averages.
- Lease and PPA effective rates: public TPO provider rate cards observed May 2026; actual offers vary by installer and state.
We update this page when new federal or state legislation, state-incentive program changes, or material market shifts warrant it. Last updated May 2026.